Steel market morning paper for March 8th

【Future market analysis】

In the night trading before the 8th, the snail 2105 opened at 4701, the interday bottomed out, the highest was 4758 and the lowest was 4701, and closed at 4749, up 31 or 0.66%. The snails are relatively strong in the short term, and more orders can increase positions on dips

【Steel market dynamics】

Iron ore: The spot offer of iron ore on the 8th is expected to fall by RMB 15-25. The Putian Index fell 3.8 to US$174.65 on Friday night, with a monthly average value of US$176.09. Tangshan restarted its secondary response to heavy pollution weather. Due to recent market volatility and the uncertainty of the superimposed policy, buyers have a heavier wait-and-see sentiment, and replenishment is mainly based on demand. Spot transactions are concentrated in low-risk PB powder, and steel companies prefer high-grade card powder and refined powder. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level this week. Today's iron ore port spot offer is expected to rise or fall 15-25 yuan.

Coke: On the 7th, the ex-factory price of Linfen first-class metallurgical coke includes RMB 2,600/ton with tax; Weifang second-class metallurgical coke's ex-factory price includes RMB 2,590/ton with tax; Tangshan first-class metallurgical coke includes RMB 2,660/ton with tax. The domestic coke market is operating weakly and steadily. In terms of supply, there are still expectations for overcapacity reduction in various regions, and due to the environmental protection policies during the two sessions, manufacturers in some regions have stopped truck loading and unloading, and coke companies have been more active in production. However, the downstream market is not proactive in purchasing, and shipments are slightly difficult. Coke inventories have accumulated to varying degrees. In terms of demand, steel mills have continued to operate at a high level, and demand for coke remains. However, environmental protection policies in Tangshan have become more stringent, and coke inventories are generally at a high level. The demand for coke has weakened. The coke market is expected to operate steadily and weakly in the short term.

Billets: During the weekend, Tangshan billets increased by 110 yuan to 4410 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream local steel mills in Tangshan report carbon billets to 4410 yuan/ton, all including tax, leaving the factory, and the merchant’s naked price is 4110 yuan. The performance of direct sales of billet in Tangshan at the weekend was generally acceptable. Due to the pressure on the cost side, the billet manufacturers are willing to increase the price. However, considering that the resumption of production of downstream rolling mills is like a short-lived, the news of production restriction will come again. , The demand for billet continues to be limited. In view of the lack of actual demand support in the current market, the short-term billet price increase is expected to narrow. 

Construction steel: At the close of the market on the 7th, the price of Hegang's third-grade seismic snails in Beijing market was 4550 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 from the previous day; Shagang's third-grade snails in Shanghai market were 4730 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 from the previous day; Guangzhou market Shaoguan Steel's third-level snails are 5,010 yuan/ton, the same as last Friday.

Plates: At the close of the market on the 7th, the closing price of hot coils on the Shanghai market was 4880-4890 yuan/ton, down 100 from the previous day’s price; the closing price of hot coils on the Tianjin market was 4820-4840 yuan/ton, down 80 from the previous day’s price. The closing price of Lecong market hot coil was 4930-4940 yuan/ton, down 60 from the previous day's price.

[Today's forecast]

Construction steel: Billets soared by 110 over the weekend, and the market was supported by strong market support. However, the mainstream of the finished product market was stable and strong, and market transactions improved. Together with the lifting of Tangshan's environmental protection production restriction and the two sessions, the steel market is positive. Overall, market merchants have strong bullish sentiment. It is estimated that the price of Hegang's third-level seismic snails in Beijing market is 4,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; Shanghai Shagang's third-level snails are 4770 yuan/ton, up 40 from the previous day; Guangzhou Shaogang's third-level snails are 4,770 yuan/ton. Large snails are 5,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day.

Plates: In terms of the market, the hot coil futures market was weak and then strong on Friday. Tangshan steel billet plummeted by 100. The spot market was pessimistic. Merchants' shipments fell along with them. However, as the volume recovered in the late afternoon, the market resources were low and the transactions were high, while low resources were slightly lower. There is an upside. Supported by the red closing on Friday night, the billet rose 110 yuan to 4,410 yuan/ton during the weekend, and the mentality of some weekend market areas boosted the broad upward trend. Comprehensive consideration, it is expected that today's hot-rolled coil will be adjusted strongly. The mainstream quotation in Shanghai market is 4980-4990 yuan/ton, the mainstream quotation in Tianjin market is 4910-4930 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market in Lecong is 4990-5000 yuan/ton.