Steel Market Morning News on March 16th

【Future market analysis】

 On the 16th day of the night trading, the 05 night trading closed 4762 up 39. The KD indicator on the daily chart was up and the leading indicator was down. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed up overnight; in terms of finished products, affected by Tangshan's production restrictions and emission reductions, the recent market fluctuations have been relatively frequent, and merchants have mainly shipped and reduced warehouses; raw material spot coke continued to be weak, and iron ore remained weak. The snails are expected to run in shock this period, supporting 4700 and pressure 4830.

【Steel City News】

 Ore: The spot offer of iron ore on the 13th is expected to fall by 15-20 yuan. On Friday night, the General Index fell 5.35 to 165.7 US dollars, with a monthly average value of 171.97 US dollars. Environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan area are still severe, and the number of blast furnaces that stop production continues to increase. The transportation of raw materials has a greater impact, and market transactions are downturn. Steel companies had replenishment operations last week. The stocks this week are acceptable, and their activity will decline. It is expected that the ore prices will fluctuate and run weakly this week. Today's iron ore port spot offer is expected to fall 15-20 yuan.

Coke: On the 15th, the ex-factory price of Linfen first-class metallurgical coke includes 2500 yuan/ton with tax; Weifang second-class metallurgical coke's ex-factory price includes 2,390 yuan/ton; Tangshan quasi-first-class metallurgical coke arrives at 2,460 yuan/ton including tax. The mainstream of the domestic coke market is operating weakly, and some steel mills have begun the fifth round of raising the price by 100. On the supply side, the coke companies are not diminishing in their enthusiasm for starting operations. Affected by the tightening of environmental protection policies in Tangshan, some coke companies have blocked shipments and coke inventories are high. On the demand side, Tangshan's environmental protection policy has been tightened again, and steel mills have gradually increased their production restrictions and maintenance. The operating rate of blast furnaces has declined slightly compared with the previous period. The demand for coke has been suppressed. Some steel mills have issued suspensions to suppliers for raw materials to enter the plant. The notice is that the coke market is expected to continue to weaken in the short term.

 Steel billet: On the 15th, Tangshan steel billet rose 10 yuan to 4420 yuan/ton. At present, some local and surrounding steel mills in Tangshan and surrounding carbon billet reported 4420 yuan/ton, all including tax and ex-factory, and the naked price of merchants was 4110 yuan. Yesterday, the snail sun remained red at the end of the trading day, which boosted the operational mentality of traders. In addition, Tangshan City has lifted the heavy pollution weather II emergency response. The downstream steel rolling enterprises are preparing to resume production. The purchase of billets is active and demand will be restored. Therefore, it is expected that the demand will be restored. The short-term billet prices are on the strong side.

Construction steel: At the close of the trading day on the 15th, the price of Hegang Group III earthquake-resistant large snails in Beijing market was 4560 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 from the previous day; Shagang Group III large snails in Shanghai market was 4730/ton, an increase of 20 compared to the previous day; Steel grade 3 large snails are 4980 yuan/ton, down 40 from the previous day;

Plate: The closing price of hot coil on the 15th is 4980-4990 yuan/ton in Shanghai market, which is an increase of 30 compared with the previous day's price; the closing price of hot coil in Tianjin market is 4870-4890 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 20 compared with the previous day's price. The closing price of Lecong hot coil market was 4990-5000 yuan/ton, a 30% increase from the previous day's price.

【Today's Forecast】

Construction steel: On the 15th, the mainstream price of wire snails nationwide was stable but weak, among 52 sample cities. There were 6 rising cities, with an increase of 10-50, accounting for 11.5%, and 21 cities with a decrease, with a decrease of 10-50, accounting for 40.4%; 25 cities were flat, accounting for 48.1%. The price of billet rose by 10 to 4,420 yuan/ton. In the market, due to the impact of Tangshan's production restriction and emission reduction, the recent market volatility has been relatively frequent, and the price of steel has been fluctuating. The limited production of steel mills in Tangshan also boosted the current market due to the late supply slowdown. However, the contradiction between supply and demand still exists. In addition, the mentality of the merchants is unstable, and the market price rises and falls frequently. It is difficult to show a unilateral trend in the market. Mainly reduce the warehouse. Considering that the current cost is still supported and the willingness to adjust the price is limited, it is expected that the current mainstream price will be stable and strong. The main influencing factors are as follows: 1. Strict environmental protection restrictions on production, strong willingness of steel mills to stand up for prices 2. Strong cost support

It is estimated that the price of Hegang Group III earthquake-resistant large snails in Beijing market is 4,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 from the previous day; Shagang Group III large snails in Shanghai market is 4750 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 compared to the previous day; Snails are 4990 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 from the previous day.

Plates: In terms of the market, the Tangshan limited production futures market has been operating at a high level recently. The overall market mentality is improving on Monday, and merchants from all over the world adjust their shipments accordingly. The dominant markets in East China, South China and North China have risen slightly, and high shipments in other regions are difficult to make price. Shipping operation. In the afternoon, as the futures volume rose, the spot transaction volume increased slightly. In terms of cost, Tangshan steel billet rose 10 to 4,420 yuan per ton, including tax. Considering the impact of multiple factors such as Tangshan's level II emergency response to severely polluted weather and the fifth round of reduction of coke, it is expected that hot rolled coils will be adjusted within a narrow range today. The mainstream price of Shanghai market is 5000-5020 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of Tianjin market is 4880- 4900 yuan / ton, Lecong market mainstream reported 5010-5020 yuan / ton.